The World Gold Council published its Weekly Markets Monitor for 7 September 2026, reporting that the dollar’s correlation with 30-year US Treasury yields has weakened sharply while its relationship with the 2-year yield remains intact. The measure is a rolling 66-day correlation between daily log changes in the US dollar index and each yield, computed on data to 4 September 2026 and sourced to Bloomberg. The Council reads the two ends as pricing different things: higher short-term rates as a sign of monetary credibility and required tightening, higher long-term rates as compensation for fiscal and inflation risk.
Sixty-six trading days is close to a quarter of a year, so the measure registers a shift only once enough sessions accumulate, and it holds one large session in the sample for three months afterwards. A physical bullion purchase runs on a far shorter clock: a quote is held for a fixed window measured in minutes, a pro forma invoice for advance payment states a dollar amount, and the advance clears over the days a cross-border transfer takes. Where the registered source account is not dollar-denominated, the sending bank converts on the day it sends, against a dollar figure fixed on an earlier date. The releases that move the short leg are published in advance — the Monitor names the ECB decision on 10 September and the US August CPI print on 11 September — and an instruction term runs against that calendar. A move originating at the 30-year end accumulates across sessions instead of resolving at a scheduled release, so no published date carries it. Neither reaches the allocation record: bars are allocated by serial into a dedicated client sub-account, and weight, fineness, refiner and place of storage do not move with a currency. The exposure sits on the reporting-currency line, and it reappears on the return leg, where an unused remainder goes back to the registered source account at a second rate on a second date, inside the term stated on the instruction.
The chart measures co-movement to 4 September 2026 and carries no level for the dollar index or for either yield. The short end is priced against Federal Open Market Committee policy and the long end against Treasury issuance and inflation compensation, neither of which a correlation records.
The mechanics of the two legs — what the 66-day window supports, which exposures require separate measurement, and which dates in a purchase chain carry a currency move — are set out in Dollar–Treasury Correlation: Reading a Split Between the Short and Long End.