The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5 percent on 14 September for the first time since 2023, two days before the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, chaired by Kevin Warsh, announces its decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on 16 September, and fed funds futures on 15 September priced a 25 basis point increase at about 90 percent. The minutes of the Committee’s 28–29 July 2026 meeting record a 9–3 vote to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, with Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie K. Logan dissenting in favour of a 25 basis point increase and many participants expecting to need tighter policy if inflation failed to come down. The same minutes show markets in July already pricing a 25 basis point increase by the September meeting, and many participants tying the renewed Middle East conflict to a less certain inflation outlook. The dollar stood near a two-week high on 15 September, with spot gold near $4,300 an ounce (indicative).
The LBMA Gold Price auctions administered by ICE Benchmark Administration run at 10:30 and 15:00 London time, so the 16 September afternoon price is set four hours before the statement, which lands at 19:00 in London, 22:00 in Dubai and 02:00 on 17 September in Singapore. A sale contract referencing the 16 September LBMA Gold Price PM prices against a figure fixed before the decision, and the first LBMA auction after it is the 17 September morning price.
Bullion is quoted in US dollars, so a purchase funded in euros, sterling or Swiss francs carries a second price, the currency conversion, fixed separately from the metal and moving with the dollar. Funding in UAE dirhams or Saudi riyals converts at the pegs of 3.6725 and 3.75 to the dollar.
The federal funds target anchors the dollar leg of the carry in gold forwards and COMEX futures, whose premium over spot reflects the dollar financing rate net of the gold lease rate. The Summary of Economic Projections released with the decision gives each participant’s projection of the appropriate federal funds rate for the end of each year and over the longer run.
Those projections record individual participants’ assessments, and the target range changes only by Committee vote, next scheduled at the 27–28 October meeting.