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Silver Price Forecast to the End of 2026: Bank Targets

Silver price forecast to the end of 2026: where major banks see silver at year-end, how their figures changed this year, and the dates still ahead.

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In this article
  1. Where bank forecasts stand for the end of 2026
  2. What whole-year averages say about December
  3. What pushed silver below $50
  4. How silver moved around the US elections on 3 November
  5. How the forecasts changed during 2026
  6. Supply and demand in 2026: deficit or surplus
  7. What could lift silver by the end of 2026, and what could hold it back
  8. How to read a dated forecast
  9. Other metals
  10. Sources

Silver reached a record above $121 an ounce in late January 2026 and later fell to less than half that level. Banks lowered their year-end forecasts several times on the way down, yet even the lowest of them sits above the $48.60 that silver touched on 3 November, its weakest price in 12 months. Several forecasts were published months before the October fall and the US elections in November, and they cover different things, from a price on one day to a three-month average. Because silver pays no interest, it tends to lose appeal when the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, raises interest rates.

Where bank forecasts stand for the end of 2026

From lowest to highest, the table lists each bank’s latest forecast beside $48.60, silver’s low on election day. All prices on this page are indicative reference prices: delayed, rounded figures from third-party market data; none is a price at which silver can be bought or sold.

ForecasterForecastWhat the figure coversPublishedChange from the previous forecast
Bank of America (US bank)$55Last three months of 202620 October, as reported in the pressNew quarterly figure; in May the bank put its average for the whole of 2026 at $85.93
JPMorgan (US bank)$63Average for the last three months of 202613 AugustDown from $90 in May
Commerzbank (German bank)$67Price at the end of 202628 JulyDown from $80 in early June
BMO Capital Markets (investment banking arm of Canada’s Bank of Montreal)$67.40Average for the last three months of 202628 SeptemberDown from $71.40
HSBC (London-based bank)$70Price at the end of 202618 MayHSBC’s silver report of 26 October gave no new price forecasts
UBS (Swiss bank)$70Price in December 202629 August, repeated in SeptemberDown from $80 at the end of April
ING (Dutch bank)$74Average for the last three months of 202624 JuneDown from $84

Where a bank names a date, such as the end of the year or December, the forecast is the price on that day. An average for the last three months of the year works differently, because the weeks already behind it count toward the result.

Five months separate the oldest forecast in the table from the newest. HSBC’s dates from May. Bank of America’s came on 20 October, ten days before silver fell below $50.

Outside the table, a scenario and two three-month targets still circulate. The gold-to-silver ratio shows how many ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys. A return of the ratio to its past lows would put silver between $135 and $309, in a January scenario from Bank of America. Citi, the US bank, gave targets of $150 on 27 January and $75 in mid-August, each for the following three months only.

What whole-year averages say about December

Some forecasters publish only an average for the whole of 2026. The later such an average is published, the more of the year it already contains: silver averaged $83.70 in January to March alone, according to JPMorgan. A whole-year average therefore says more about the months behind it than about December.

ForecasterAverage for 2026PublishedChange from the previous forecast
World Bank (international lender to developing countries)$70Commodity Markets Outlook, OctoberNot reported
Reuters poll (30 analysts and traders surveyed by the news agency)$70.3027 OctoberDown from $72 in July
JPMorgan$70.6013 AugustDown from $84.30 in May
Metals Focus (London research firm that produces the silver industry’s annual World Silver Survey)$72.6019 October, in an interviewNot reported
HSBC$7518 MayUp from $68.25

What pushed silver below $50

Silver lost close to a fifth of its value in October, nearly three times as much as gold. On 14 October alone it fell more than 6%, after US consumer prices for September rose faster than expected.

DateWhat happenedSilver
30 SeptemberLast close of September$60.42 at the close
1 OctoberUS inflation data came in below expectations, and the chance of a rate increase in October fellBack above $61
14 OctoberUS consumer prices were 3.7% higher than a year earlier, against a forecast of 3.6%; markets put the chance of a rate increase in December at 93%Down 6.29% to $55.74, the lowest close of the year at that point
29 OctoberThe PCE price index, the inflation measure the Federal Reserve prefers, was 3.6% higher than a year earlier$52.58, the lowest since November 2025
30 OctoberSelling continued on the last trading day of the month$49.13 at the close, the lowest in 11 months

On 28 October the Federal Reserve held its rate at 3.75–4.00%, the level set in September by its first increase in three years. Two of the 12 policymakers who vote on the rate wanted a further increase. Markets were betting on one at the next meeting, on 9 December.

A stronger dollar added to the pressure. Silver is priced in dollars, so it becomes more expensive for buyers paying in other currencies when the dollar rises. On 14 October the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six others, rose above 102.

Silver usually moves further than gold in both directions. Industry uses more than half of the silver bought each year, so its price also follows the outlook for manufacturing.

How silver moved around the US elections on 3 November

When Americans voted in the midterm elections on 3 November, they chose a new House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate, the two chambers of Congress. Polls had pointed to a new majority in the House, with the Senate too close to call. Gold fell 11% in the eight weeks before the vote, the steepest drop ahead of any of the five midterms compared by BullionVault, an online marketplace for gold and silver. Investors adjusted their positions ahead of the result, lifting silver to $51.25 on 2 November, in BullionVault’s account. Silver then touched about $48.60 on election day, its lowest in 12 months.

By Reuters’ count, the Democrats won majorities in both chambers. Two Senate races were still undeclared on 6 November, and the new Congress takes its seats on 3 January 2027. Markets read the result as a divided government, with the White House and Congress held by different parties. Investors expected more deadlock and more restrained federal spending, which could reduce how much the government needs to borrow.

MeasureAfter the vote
Dollar indexFell to about 101.2 by 5 November
Yield on 10-year US government bondsAbout 4.93% in early trading on 4 November, down from about 4.95%
Brent crude, the international oil benchmarkDown about 9% on 4 November, the largest daily fall since April
GoldUp more than 3% on 4 November, and about 2% more by midday in Asia on 5 November
SilverUp about 5% on 4 November, then $53.11 by midday in Asia on 5 November

Silver gained more than gold on 4 November, helped by lower bond yields and a weaker dollar, and ended the week of the vote 5.6% higher.

Interest-rate expectations barely moved. Futures put the chance of a December rate increase at 77.4% before the vote and 80.7% after it, in figures from CME FedWatch, a tool of the exchange operator CME Group. A jobs report on 6 November showed 165,000 new jobs in October and unemployment at 4.1%. Consumer prices for October, published on 10 November, rose faster than forecast. Markets then treated a December increase as close to settled, and silver fell about 3%, to around $51.70.

In the view of Metals Focus, the results add “a new layer of unpredictability” for precious metals. On that reading, deadlock in Congress makes more government stimulus less likely, while cuts to the budget deficit large enough to matter remain unlikely. Metals Focus sees the outcome as a mild plus for gold and silver, although for silver easier financial conditions have to be weighed against softer demand from industry.

Before the year is out, the outgoing Congress has one more deadline to meet. Government funding runs out on 11 December, and an extension is needed to avoid a partial shutdown.

How the forecasts changed during 2026

Most banks raised their silver forecasts early in the year, around the January record, and have cut them in steps since the spring.

ForecasterWhat the figure coversForecast by date of publication
CommerzbankPrice at the end of 2026$95 (13 January) → $90 (27 March) → $80 (4 June) → $67 (28 July)
JPMorganAverage for the last three months of 2026$85 (February) → $90 (May) → $63 (13 August)
UBSPrice in December 2026$85 → $80 (30 April) → $70 (29 August)
INGAverage for the last three months of 2026$84 → $74 (24 June)
BMO Capital MarketsAverage for the last three months of 2026$71.40 → $67.40 (28 September)
Reuters pollAverage for 2026$50 (October 2025) → $79.50 (February) → $78 (April) → $72 (July) → $70.30 (October)

As US interest rates rose, investors pulled back, and the cuts followed. Rising bond yields and a stronger dollar were ING’s reasons when it lowered its forecasts in June. For JPMorgan, the trouble was investor buying, which faded after the fall from the January record.

On the industrial side, demand has softened as well. Commerzbank made its first cut in March, citing economic uncertainty from higher energy prices. The bank’s June cut followed a forecast from the Silver Institute, the silver industry’s association, of a second year of falling industrial demand. In ING’s reading, solar-panel makers keep reducing the silver in each panel.

UBS cut its price targets in April after sharply lowering its estimate of the shortage of silver. Bank of America, in its October note, expected supply to exceed demand in 2026 and put the possible drop in solar use at 11%.

By mid-November, none of the banks in the table had published a new silver forecast since the US elections.

Supply and demand in 2026: deficit or surplus

A deficit means that the world uses more silver in a year than mines and recycling supply, and the gap is met from stocks. In the Silver Institute’s annual survey, produced by Metals Focus, 2026 is set to be the sixth deficit year in a row. Bank estimates range from a larger shortfall to a surplus.

ForecasterEstimate for 2026Published
UBSShortfall of 60–70 million ounces, down from about 300 million30 April
Silver Institute and Metals Focus, World Silver SurveyShortfall of 46.3 million ounces, up from 40.3 million in 202515 April
Metals Focus, in an interviewShortfall of 35.4 million ounces19 October
HSBCShortfall of 5 million ounces26 October
Bank of AmericaMore silver than the market needs; no figure reported20 October, as reported in the press

About 19% less silver is going into solar panels in 2026, the sharpest yearly drop on record for that use. Panel makers are thinning the silver in each panel, and the survey’s figure for their total use is around 151 million ounces. Installations are slowing too. BloombergNEF, which researches energy markets, sees global solar installations falling in 2026 for the first time in about two decades. Chinese solar demand for silver is down about a third this year in an October estimate from Deutsche Bank, the German bank.

Demand for bars and coins moves the other way. Buying of both should rise 18% in 2026, the survey shows.

To cover the gap, the market has drawn 762 million ounces from stocks since 2021, by the survey’s count. London’s free stocks, meanwhile, are back at their highest since November 2024, in the same Deutsche Bank note. Silver held above ground and recycled metal could in time cap big price gains, in HSBC’s view.

Whether the official 2026 deficit changes will become clear in mid-November, when the Silver Institute and Metals Focus publish their interim review.

What could lift silver by the end of 2026, and what could hold it back

Forecasters name several things that could lift silver before the end of the year, and several that could hold it back.

ArgumentDirectionWho makes itWhen
Every bank forecast for the end of 2026 is above the 12-month low silver touched on 3 NovemberUpSeven banksMay–October
The autumn fall went too far: China imported almost 50% more silver in January–September than a year earlierUpCommerzbank3 November
The market is heading for a sixth year in a row of shortageUpSilver Institute and Metals FocusApril; interim review due in mid-November
Investor demand is recoveringUpHSBC26 October
The election result is modestly positive for gold and silver, though weaker industrial demand weighs on silverUpMetals Focus5 November
Markets treat a US rate increase in December as almost certain after inflation data on 10 NovemberDownFutures prices, as shown by CME FedWatch10 November
Stocks above ground and recycled silver may limit large rallies; the shortage in 2026 shrinks to 5 million ouncesDownHSBC26 October
The market will have more silver than it needs in 2026, and solar use could fall 11%DownBank of America20 October, as reported in the press
Solar panels will use about 19% less silver in 2026DownSilver Institute and Metals FocusApril
Silver is rated neutralNeutralJulius Baer (Swiss private bank)3 November

How to read a dated forecast

A forecast belongs to the date it was made and the period it covers. Three earlier forecasts can now be set against the price: one has reached its date, and two cover the whole of 2026. Two of them come from the LBMA, the association of the London precious metals market.

ForecastMadeWhat happened
LBMA conference delegates: $59.10 a year aheadOctober 2025Silver traded at $61.23 during the 2026 conference
LBMA annual survey of 26 analysts: $79.57 average for 2026, with individual averages from $44.25 to $125January 2026The year is not over; the latest Reuters poll puts the 2026 average at $70.30
Heraeus (German precious metals group): $43–62 range for 20268 December 2025Silver’s high of more than $121 in January was above the range; after the autumn fall, silver traded inside it

These dates can move silver, and the forecasts, before the end of the year:

  • US inflation: producer prices for October on 13 November, consumer prices for November on 10 December, producer prices for November on 15 December.
  • US jobs: the report for November on 4 December.
  • Federal Reserve: the rate decision on 9 December, with policymakers’ updated economic projections.
  • US government funding: runs out on 11 December unless Congress extends it.
  • Silver market reports: the interim review by the Silver Institute and Metals Focus in mid-November, and the Heraeus Precious Metals Forecast 2027 in November.
  • January 2027: the LBMA’s annual forecast survey, with the next Reuters poll around the end of the month.

None of the forecasts on this page is Golden Ark Reserve’s own. The page records what other institutions have published, with dates and sources; Golden Ark Reserve publishes no price forecast, does not endorse any of these figures, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation on when to buy or sell. Silver bars are listed with indicative prices in the silver bars catalogue. After payment, the price is fixed, including the premium.

Other metals

Bank forecasts for gold at the end of 2026 are set out the same way in the gold price forecast to the end of 2026.

Sources

Prices and market moves

US elections

Bank forecasts

Polls, surveys and research

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